Technological breakthroughs

Replacing chemical fertilizers with organic fertilizers is widely regarded as an important pathway to mitigating agricultural pollution and promoting green agricultural development. However, the current adoption rate of organic fertilizers among farmers remains low, which means that their economic and environmental benefits have not yet been fully realized. A recent study by Chinese researchers employed evolutionary game theory to conduct an in-depth analysis of the factors influencing farmers’ decisions to adopt organic fertilizers, while also proposing a breakthrough solution through the application of digital technologies.

The study was conducted by a research team from Wenzhou University and Wenzhou Vocational College of Science and Technology and was published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. The researchers constructed a symmetric game model of farmers under three different scenarios: without external intervention, with government incentive policies, and with the integration of digital technologies. A distinctive feature of this study is its income-based analysis, which reveals differentiated impacts of various factors across different farmer groups.

The results indicate that income level exerts a differentiated effect on farmers’ learning and imitation behaviors. High-income farmers tend to have stronger demands for environmental quality and greater risk tolerance. They are more likely to achieve effective adoption of organic fertilizers through mutual learning and imitation. According to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, once basic material needs are satisfied, high-income farmers pursue higher-level “ecological utility.” In contrast, low-income farmers, due to weaker risk resilience and lower environmental awareness, tend to prioritize the use of chemical fertilizers to secure short-term benefits.

With regard to government policy interventions, the study shows that financial subsidies can significantly increase farmers’ motivation to adopt organic fertilizers in the short term. When subsidy levels are sufficient to offset the higher costs of organic fertilizers, farmers are willing to shift toward their use. However, due to the heavy fiscal burden, subsidy policies are difficult to sustain in the long run. On the other hand, government publicity and advocacy policies can strengthen farmers’ moral constraints, but their effectiveness is limited because the cultivation of ecological ethics is a long-term process. When relying solely on publicity without subsidies, it takes a considerable amount of time for the system to reach a stable state.

The most important breakthrough of the study lies in demonstrating the role of digital technologies in promoting the adoption of organic fertilizers even in the absence of financial subsidies. Digital technologies operate through two main mechanisms. First, they reduce the cost of adopting organic fertilizers by providing targeted technical guidance, lowering learning costs and the risks associated with improper application. Farmers can access accurate technical information through digital platforms such as short videos and agricultural applications, which helps them better understand the benefits of organic fertilizers. Second, digital technologies enable governments to conduct more effective publicity on ecological protection and green policies, thereby enhancing farmers’ environmental awareness and moral constraints.

Simulation results show that when the level of digitalization reaches a certain threshold, farmers’ willingness to use organic fertilizers stabilizes at a high level, even when financial subsidies are reduced to zero. This demonstrates that digital technologies can generate effects comparable to financial policies, but at lower cost and with greater sustainability. When financial subsidies are combined with government publicity, the overall effectiveness increases significantly. The stronger the moral constraints, the more powerful the incentive effect of financial subsidies at the same level, which helps reduce farmers’ dependence on subsidies.

The study also examines the evolution of fertilizer policies in China, from the period of encouraging increased use of chemical fertilizers (1949–1994), to the phase of balancing and adjusting fertilizer application structures (1995–2014), and finally to the phase of replacing chemical fertilizers with organic fertilizers (from 2015 to the present). By 2022, agricultural fertilizer use in China had decreased by 16% compared with 2015, while grain output increased by 4%, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing chemical fertilizer use.

Based on these findings, the research team proposes several important policy recommendations. First, governments should increase investment in digital infrastructure and develop high-speed communication networks that cover both rural and urban areas. At the same time, education and training in digital technologies for farmers should be strengthened to enhance their digital literacy. Digital platforms such as short-video channels, official accounts, and agricultural applications should be fully utilized to disseminate information on replacing chemical fertilizers with organic fertilizers, enabling farmers to access accurate technical information in a timely manner.

Second, organic fertilizer subsidy policies should be improved by adopting differentiated standards for farmers with different income levels and by providing subsidies based on their actual circumstances. Governments should actively solicit feedback from farmers on subsidy policies and the quality of organic fertilizers, while also ensuring transparency in subsidy implementation to enhance farmers’ awareness and trust in these policies.

Finally, the development of green agriculture should not rely solely on financial subsidies but also on strengthening farmers’ internal behavioral constraints. Governments should increase investment in ecological education, enhance farmers’ awareness of the environmental benefits of organic fertilizers, and strengthen their intrinsic motivation to adopt them. In addition, emerging agricultural business entities such as family farms and cooperatives should be used as starting points to create demonstration effects for ordinary farmers.

This study is of great significance not only for China but also for other developing countries. For countries with lower levels of agricultural production, financial subsidies and government publicity remain effective incentive measures. However, the development of digital technologies offers substantial potential to promote green agricultural production in a sustainable and cost-effective manner, opening up new pathways for the global transition toward sustainable agricultural development.