Market and product
Nitrogen Outlook: Growing potential nitrogen surplus after 2016
Global ammonia capacity is projected to grow 16% over 2013, reaching 245Mt NH3 in 2018. The main additions to capacity will be in East Asia (China, Indonesia), Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria), West Asia (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Bahrain) and Latin America (Venezuela, Brazil).
Moderate net growth of seaborne ammonia supply
Global seaborne ammonia availability in 2018 may increase 3-4% over 2013 to reach 19Mt, assuming a gradual ramp-up of new capacity. The integration of new downstream capacity would reduce global seaborne ammonia availability to below 18 Mt in 2015 and 2016.
Firm demand in nitrogen industrial segments supports global consumption
Global nitrogen supply in 2018 is projected at 176 Mt N and demand at 161 Mt N. Significant growth in demand is seen in East Asia (+9 Mt N, especially in industrial segments), South Asia (+3.0 Mt N) and Latin America (+2.0 Mt N). Inother regions demand would increase by 0.4-1.0 Mt N. Global industrial nitrogen demand is projected to expand by an overall 30% between 2013 and 2018, compared with a 7.4% increase in the fertilizer sector.
Growing potential nitrogen surplus after 2016
Global potential supply would be more than adequate to meet growing demand. Potential annual surpluses due to the difference in global supply of and demand for nitrogen products would accelerate from 7-10 Mt N in 2015-2016 to exceed 13 Mt N by 2017.
Under a slow – growth supply scenario, all new supply would be absorbed by the growth of demand until 2015. Expansion of supply would start to exceed demand growth by 2016, resulting in higher potential surplus, which may equate to 6% of potential supply in 2018.
New urea capacity emerging in East Asia, Africa and North America
Close to 60 new urea units are planned to come on stream between 2014 and 2018, of which 25 would be located in China. Beyond 2016, all new urea capacity worldwide will be located outside China, confirming the broadening of capacity expansion to other countries. Global urea capacity would increase by 41 Mt between 2013 and 2018, to 245 Mt. This corresponds to a compound annual growth rate of 3%. East Asia would contribute 36% of the net capacity increase, followed by Africa (22% share) and North America (13%). Global urea supply is estimated at 182 Mt in 2013, 188 Mt in 2014 and 216 Mt in 2018, growing at a projected average annual rate of 4% over 2013.
Firm demand growth in industrial uses and moderate growth in agriculture
Global demand for urea for all uses is forecast at 203 Mt in 2018, increasing 34 Mt over 2013 or at a3.3% average annual growth rate over the next five years. Significant increases in urea demand are seen in East Asia (mostly industrial demand), South Asia, and Latin America. These three regions will account for 80% of the world’s urea demand growth during the forecast period.
Stable balance in the near term as demand growth matches supply growth
Over the next five years the potential surplus will remain relatively stable over the period from 2014 to 2015, see an upward correction in 2016-17 and remain stable afterward.
A slow-growth scenario would suggest a gradual increase of potential surplus, with potential decreases in 2015 and 2018 as a result of project delays.
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