Market and product

Forecasts for 2017 predict gross domestic product will grow by about 6.5pc while value of yuan against US dollar will fall another 3pc to 5pc.

China’s economy will grow by around 6.5 per cent in 2017, while the value of the yuan against US dollar will continue to fall, government researchers said in Beijing on Monday.

The China Academy of Social Sciences’ (CASS) GDP forecast comes after China’s top leaders held a key meeting on the economy last week, where they vowed to keep China on a path of stable and healthy growth next year.

China’s economy has grown at 6.7 per cent during the first three quarters of 2016 and is on pace to record the slowest growth rate in more than 25 years.

The economy will grow 6.5 per cent in the first and second quarters, and 6.4 per cent in the third and fourth quarters, CASS said.

A key challenge will be stemming capital outflows amid a depreciating yuan, which has fallen more than 6 per cent against the dollar this year.

The yuan will depreciate against the dollar by another 3 per cent to 5 per cent in 2017, a Ministry of Commerce researcher Jin Bosong said on Monday.

In yuan terms, China’s exports should grow 4 per cent to 6 per cent in 2017, with imports up 2 per cent to 4 per cent, Jin said.

CASS also forecast that consumer price inflation will be 2.2 per cent in 2017 and producer prices will rise 1.6 per cent.

Consumer price inflation for the first 11 months of the year was 2 per cent, while producer prices have fallen 2 per cent.

Retail sales will rise 9.5 per cent, while fixed asset investment will increase 8.9 per cent.

CASS’s forecast in December 2015 for 2016 growth was 6.6 per cent to 6.8 per cent. - Reuters