VINACHEM

With new U.S. tariffs on the horizon, Vietnam will need to grow 8.3% in the next nine months. The government has proposed an urgent action plan to meet this target.

Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance has laid out the challenges and strategies required to achieve the ambitious GDP growth target of 8% or more in 2025, warning that the economy will need to grow at a rate of 8.3% over the next nine months to reach this goal.

Speaking at a government meeting with local authorities on the morning of April 6, Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang reported that Q1 GDP is estimated to have grown by 6.93% year-on-year - exceeding the Central Committee’s projection of 6.2–6.6% and marking the highest first-quarter growth since 2020.

This positive performance helps keep Vietnam among the world’s fastest-growing economies. However, the Ministry of Finance forecasts a turbulent road ahead, especially as new U.S. tariff measures pose a significant risk.

If the U.S. imposes a 46% tariff across a wide range of Vietnamese exports, the Ministry warns that it could heavily impact exports to the U.S., with ripple effects hitting manufacturing, FDI, private investment, consumption, employment, and domestic business operations.

Macroeconomic stability may also come under greater risk. Although legal and institutional reforms have been prioritized, various implementation challenges persist. The livelihoods of certain segments of the population -particularly workers - could be affected if businesses are forced to scale back operations due to export disruptions.

“This pressure demands a proactive, decisive, and innovative approach from all levels of government,” said Minister Thang.

To meet the annual target, GDP will need to grow by 8.2% in Q2, 8.3% in Q3, and 8.4% in Q4 - each 0.2% higher than previous projections.

For Q2 specifically, the manufacturing and processing sector must expand by 10.1% year-on-year, reaffirming its role as the primary growth engine. Electricity and gas production should increase by 11.5%, and the mining sector must recover further to contribute more to overall growth.

Public investment also offers substantial potential. The National Assembly has allocated nearly 826 trillion VND (approx. 32.6 billion USD) for public investment in 2025. Meanwhile, the service and tourism sectors, which showed strong momentum in Q1, continue to present significant opportunities for growth.

Strategic policy priorities and macro stability

To reach its targets, the Ministry of Finance proposes several urgent measures, beginning with enhanced bilateral dialogue and negotiations with the U.S. to seek a reasonable and mutually acceptable tariff arrangement.

At the same time, ministries and government agencies are urged to closely coordinate with the National Assembly in preparing legislative items for the upcoming 9th session, particularly the 17 draft laws and resolutions scheduled for consideration.

The Ministry of Home Affairs, along with other relevant agencies and localities, is tasked with vigorously restructuring administrative bodies and ensuring that operations continue uninterrupted—minimizing any disruption to citizens and businesses.

Vietnam must also reinforce macroeconomic stability and lay the foundation for sustainable growth by boosting public investment, encouraging domestic and foreign private investment (FDI), and further stimulating the tourism sector. Additionally, the investment environment must be continually improved.

The Ministry also called on line ministries and regulatory bodies to proactively review and amend legal documents within their jurisdiction to ensure consistency with the amended 2013 Constitution, which is expected to take effect on July 1, 2025. This is vital to ensure that Vietnam’s two-tier local government system functions smoothly and without legal gaps.  – Source: VNN –