VINACHEM

The US’ S&P Global Ratings forecasted Viet Nam's GDP per capita at about US$4,500 at the end of 2024 and the nation’s economic growth will pick up to 5.8 percent this year.

In its report released on June 20, the agency predicted that over the next three to four years, Viet Nam's real GDP growth rate will return to its long-term trend of 6.5-7 percent.

Trend growth, as measured by the country's 10-year weighted-average increase in real GDP per capita, of about 5 percent is significantly higher than the median of peers at a similar income level.

The stable outlook reflects the agency's expectation that Viet Nam's economy will accelerate over the next 12 months as global demand picks up and the country gradually resolves its domestic challenges.

According to S&P Global Ratings, on the services side, cross-border travel is recovering, including a surge in Chinese tourists. Total tourist arrivals into Viet Nam were up by 165 percent in the first five months of 2024 versus the same period in 2023.

Public investment will gradually accelerate over the coming years, primarily from the state budget.

Both exports and imports will likely return to healthy growth rates in 2024. The current account surplus will remain elevated, at about 5.5 percent of GDP this year, before moderating toward its long-term trend from 2025 onward.

Viet Nam's competitive unit labor costs, improving educational standards, and constructive demographics imply continued growth in FDI and goods exports.

The country has also emerged as a top destination for diversification for global firms operating in the region.

Viet Nam has actively enhanced market access via bilateral and multilateral free trade initiatives, including the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, European Union-Viet Nam Free Trade Agreement, and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

The agency affirmed its 'BB+' long-term sovereign credit rating on Viet Nam and the short-term rating at 'B'. The outlook on the long-term rating is stable.

Viet Nam's GDP size was estimated at US$433.3 billion in 2023, ranking fifth in Southeast Asia, according to the latest figures released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Last year, the nation's economy expanded 5.05 percent and GDP per capita reached US$4,284, US$174 higher than in 2022./.   – Source: VGP –