VINACHEM

The IEA today cuts its oil demand growth forecast for 2024, saying it sees evidence of demand destruction after the rise in global prices that ran throughout September.

In its Oil Market Report (OMR) the Paris-based agency put 2024 demand growth at 880,000 b/d compared with 990,000 b/d in its previous OMR. For this year the IEA raised its demand growth forecast slightly to 2.3mn b/d from 2.2mn b/d, citing "buoyant" results from major demand centres China, India and Brazil.

But there "has been some evidence of large-scale demand destruction, especially in lower income countries like Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt, and signs of accelerating declines within some OECD markets including the US", it said.

The IEA left its supply forecasts unchanged for growth of 1.5mn b/d and 1.7mn b/d respectively this year and in 2024. The voluntary cuts to supplies made by Opec+ members Saudi Arabia and Russia will keep the oil market in deficit, the IEA said. It noted a 63.9mn bl drawdown in global observed inventories in August, with crude stocks dropping by 102.3mn bl to the lowest level since at least 2017. Preliminary data suggest a continued draw from land storage in September, it said.

The Israel-Hamas conflict has had "no direct impact on oil flows", it said, but has added geopolitical risk in a region crucial for oil supplies, meaning "markets will remain on tenterhooks as the crisis unfolds".  – argusmedia.com –