VINACHEM

Vietnam's economy is projected to grow by 6.1 per cent next year, unchanged from the growth forecast for 2024.

According to the updated World Economic Outlook 2025 report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Vietnam's economy is projected to grow by 6.1 per cent next year.

This figure remains unchanged from the growth forecast for 2024. However, it is higher than forecasts for other countries in the region, including China (4.5 per cent), Indonesia (5.1 per cent), Thailand (3 per cent) and Malaysia (4.4 per cent).

The IMF forecasts that Vietnam's consumer prices will rise by 3.5 per cent in 2025, a decrease of 0.6 per cent compared to the previous year. Regarding unemployment rates, the IMF predicts a slight decrease for Vietnam, from 2.1 per cent in 2024 to 2 per cent in 2025.

On a broader scale, global growth is projected to be 3.2 per cent in 2025, while medium-term growth is expected to fade to a "mediocre" 3.1 per cent in five years, well below its pre-pandemic trend, the report stated.

Despite this, the IMF's chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that the global economy has managed a "soft landing", with inflation easing without significant increases in unemployment.

However, the IMF has also warned of potential risks to the global economic outlook, including rising tariffs and retaliatory trade measures, which could intensify in 2025.

The report outlines several unfavourable scenarios for the global economy, including 10 per cent increases in bilateral tariffs between the US, the EU and China, 10 per cent increases in US tariffs on imported goods, a decline in the number of migrants to the US and Europe and a "chaotic" global financial market.

Should these scenarios materialise, global GDP output could drop by 0.8 per cent in 2025 and 1.3 per cent in 2026.

Vietnam's GDP is projected to reach US$500 billion in 2025, positioning the country as the 33rd largest economy in the world and the fourth largest in ASEAN, according to Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính.

During a conference on October 20, he stated that Vietnam's average annual growth between 2021 and 2025 is estimated to be around 6 per cent.

"Vietnam’s economic growth rate is among the highest both regionally and globally," he remarked.

The Prime Minister also highlighted that GDP per capita is expected to grow from $3,720 in 2021 to about $4,900 in 2025, reflecting a 31.7 per cent increase.  – Source: VNS –