VINACHEM

The Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram) attributes the growth in exports in 2024 to the resumption of production by companies that faced disruptions in recent years, the entry of new players into the Brazilian market, and the expansion of operations by established companies.

“The prolonged recovery period was expected, given the significant impact of the Brumadinho disaster on operations and the production chain,” Ibram stated in a release.

China remained the leading destination for Brazilian iron ore, accounting for 67% of exports, far ahead of Malaysia’s second-largest buyer, with 5.4%.

Among the Brazilian states with the highest iron ore exports, Pará accounted for 43.2% of the country’s shipments abroad in 2024, followed by Minas Gerais at 42.4%.

Despite the increased export volume, Brazil earned less from iron ore sales in 2024, totaling $29.8 billion—a 2.4% decline compared to 2023. Iron ore prices fluctuated between $90 and $145 per ton in 2024, according to BB Investimentos. For 2025, the bank estimates an average price of $92 per ton.

Ibram forecasts that 2025 will see an increase in production volume accompanied by an upward trend in iron ore prices. However, a BB Investimentos analyst notes that the level of shipments in 2025 will depend on the operational performance of major producers and weather conditions throughout the year, particularly rainfall, which was favorable in 2024.

The expected reduction in steel consumption in China is also a key factor in this outlook. “We don’t see room for an expansion of Chinese steelmaking activity in the short term, which could limit iron ore imports in China, the primary destination for Brazilian ore.”

The BB Investimentos analyst predicts that shipments will remain high this year but without a significant increase compared to 2024.

“No substantial expansion in Brazil’s iron ore production capacity is expected. Vale has set a production target of 325 to 335 million tons, compared to 328 million tons in 2024. CSN Mineração estimates production at 42 to 43.5 million tons, including third-party purchases, similar to 2024 projections.”  – Source: datamarnews.com –