Pound, gold and oil prices in focus: commodity and currency check

03:42 PM @ Wednesday - 30 October, 2024

Sterling held steady against the dollar in early European trading on Monday, up just 0.07% to $1.297. The pound hovered around its lowest point since August, as investors geared up for the autumn budget.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to deliver Labour's first budget in nearly 15 years on Wednesday 30 October.

In a speech ahead of the budget on Monday, prime minister Keir Starmer is expected to warn that it is time to "embrace the harsh light of fiscal reality".

Both Starmer and Reeves have said that this budget will involve some "tough" decisions, claiming that they have inherited a £22bn "black hole" in public finances from the previous Conservative government.

In Wednesday's budget, Reeves is expected to announce tax rises to raise funds. However, Reeves also confirmed last week that the government would change the way debt is measured to fund more investment.

Both Starmer and Reeves have said that this budget will involve some "tough" decisions, claiming that they have inherited a £22bn "black hole" in public finances from the previous Conservative government.

In Wednesday's budget, Reeves is expected to announce tax rises to raise funds. However, Reeves also confirmed last week that the government would change the way debt is measured to fund more investment.

Investor appetite for gold as a safe haven asset appeared to have shifted, despite uncertainty with the US presidential election next week and continued conflict in the Middle East.

In terms of US economic data releases, the advance estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product figure is due out on Wednesday.

The September personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index – the Fed's preferred measure of inflation – is due out on Thursday.

The US October payrolls report is then slated for release on Friday.

These data points are key in guiding central bank monetary policy, with the Fed set to announce its latest interest rate decision on 7 November, just two days after the presidential election.

Oil 

Crude oil prices slid on Monday morning after Israel refrained from targeting Iran's refining facilities in an attack over the weekend.

Brent crude futures fell more than 5% to $71.93, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also declined more than 5% to $67.74.

Deutsche Bank's team of analysts said in note on Monday: "The targeted scope of the attack and the absence of an immediate retaliation signal have seen markets price out some of the geopolitical risk premium."

Israel attacked Iranian military sites with airstrikes on Saturday, in response to ballistic missiles fired at Israel at the beginning of October.

However, the attack avoided Iran's oil and nuclear sites, giving hope that further escalation in the Middle East conflict could be avoided.  – Yahoo News