VINACHEM

Public debt is expected to reach 93% of global GDP this year and approach 100% by 2030, representing a 10 percentage point increase compared to 2019, before the pandemic.

The global public debt will exceed $100 trillion by the end of the year and is projected to continue growing, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported.

"While the picture is not uniform—public debt is expected to stabilize or decline in two-thirds of countries—the October 2024 Fiscal Monitor reveals that future debt levels could surpass current projections," the report stated.

It was clarified that this year, public debt will reach 93% of global GDP, and by 2030, it will approach 100%. This is 10 percentage points higher than in 2019, before the pandemic.

The fiscal outlook for many countries could worsen due to rising spending demands, overly optimistic debt forecasts, and a significant amount of "unexplained" debt. The IMF warns that increased funding will be needed for aging populations, healthcare, climate adaptation, and geopolitical concerns, leading to higher budget pressures.

Historically, debt projections tend to underestimate actual outcomes, with debt-to-GDP ratios possibly exceeding forecasts by 10 percentage points over five years. The IMF’s new "debt-at-risk" concept highlights how macroeconomic conditions could push global debt to 115% of GDP in three years, driven by slower growth, tighter financial conditions, and policy uncertainties.  – Source: Sputnik –