VINACHEM

According to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Việt Nam's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 is estimated to have reached about US$433.3 billion, which is the fifth highest in Southeast Asia.

With this forecast, Việt Nam's economy in 2023 ranked equal to Malaysia ($433.35 billion) and above Myanmar ($74.9 billion), Cambodia ($30.9 billion), Brunei ($15.1 billion), Laos ($14.2 billion) and East Timor ($2 billion).

According to the IMF, in 2023, the GDP of the Southeast Asia region will reach about $3.86 trillion. Indonesia leads the region with an estimated GDP of about $1.42 billion. Thailand ranked second in the region with GDP in 2023 forecast at $512 billion, with Singapore and the Philippines, with GDP sizes of $497 billion and $435.7 billion, respectively, third and fourth.

IMF data shows that the size of global GDP in 2023 is estimated to reach about $104.5 trillion. The United States is the largest economy in the world with an estimated GDP of $26.95 trillion. China is the world's second-largest economy with a GDP of $17.7 trillion. They are followed by Germany ($4.43 trillion), Japan ($4.23 trillion) and India ($3.73 trillion). With a GDP of more than $430 billion, Việt Nam is currently the 35th largest economy in the world.

By the end of 2024, Việt Nam's GDP is forecast to reach about $469.7 billion, ranking it fifth in the region after countries such as Indonesia ($1.54 trillion), Thailand ($543.35 billion), Singapore ($520.97 billion) and the Philippines ($475.94 billion).

The UK's independent Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) assessed that Việt Nam's economic ranking may increase rapidly in the future. Specifically, Việt Nam will rise to the 24th position by 2033, with an economy of $1.05 trillion.

By 2038, with an expected GDP scale of $1.56 trillion, Việt Nam will rise to 21st position, surpassing other economies in the ASEAN region such as Thailand ($1.313 trillion), Singapore ($896 billion), the Philippines ($1.536 trillion) to enter the group of 25 largest economies in the world.

According to CEBR, with the advantage of a large and young population, Việt Nam has the opportunity to surpass most ASEAN countries economically such as Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia, and become a high-income country by 2045.

CEBR also forecasts Việt Nam’s average annual GDP growth rate will be 6.7 per cent in the period 2024-2028. Growth will be 6.4 per cent in the next nine years.

In the ASEAN region, besides Việt Nam, the Philippines is also considered a country with impressive growth, possibly reaching the 23rd position by 2038. Việt Nam and the Philippines are expected to improve their rankings thanks to repositioning in the global value chain, internal reforms, an increase of labour productivity and public and private investment, according to CERB. — VNS