VINACHEM

Việt Nam’s GDP growth for 2024 is projected by the World Bank to be 6.5 per cent, an increase from the 5.5 per cent forecast made in April.

The projection was released on Tuesday in an updated report on the economic situation in the East Asia and Pacific region for October.

With this forecast, Việt Nam’s GDP growth is higher than that of eight countries in the ASEAN region and China.

The report highlights a number of positive signs in Việt Nam’s economy compared to other countries in the region.

Investment growth appears to be relatively robust in Việt Nam while it slows in China and remains below pre-pandemic levels in Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Việt Nam is also one of the few countries that have seen tourist arrivals return to or surpass pre-pandemic numbers.

The country has also benefited from 'connecting' major trading partners as global tensions rose, according to the report.

“Vietnamese firms exporting to the US saw sales grow almost 25 per cent faster than those exporting to other destinations over the period 2018–21,” it says.

The World Bank projects China’s GDP growth at 4.8 per cent in 2024, which may decrease to 4.3 per cent in 2025.

The organisation attributes this decline to prolonged weakness in the real estate market, low confidence among investors and consumers, an aging population and global tensions.

In the ASEAN region, the projected growth rates for 2024 and 2025 for Thailand are 2.4 and 3.0 per cent, respectively.

For Malaysia they are 4.9 and 4.5 per cent, for Indonesia 5.0 and 5.1 per cent and for the Phillippines 6.0 and 6.1 per cent

Also on Tuesday, the Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) increased its GDP growth forecast for Việt Nam this year to 6.4 per cent, up from the previous projection of 5.9 per cent.

The revision takes into account of the year-to-date performance and the disruptions to activities in early the fourth quarter caused by Typhoon Yagi.

Việt Nam’s GDP in the third quarter grew by 7.4 per cent, higher than the average market forecast of 6.1 per cent and UOB’s projection of 5.7 per cent, according to UOB’s Global Economics & Market Research Unit.

The surprise outcome reflected the resilience of the economy, despite the devastation from the super typhoon, the bank said.

The service sector was the main driver of Việt Nam's GDP growth in the last quarter, contributing 3.24 percentage points, followed by the industry and construction sector with 3.37 percentage points.

At the beginning of October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also increased its projection of this year’s growth for Việt Nam to 6.1 per cent, up 0.3 percentage point from its previous prediction in June.