VINACHEM

The Vietnamese economy needs to be cautious of external shocks this year due to global economic uncertainties, a scholar has warned.

Director of the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research at the Vietnam National University’s University of Economics and Business Nguyen Duc Thanh made this comment during a ceremony in Hanoi on January 16 to release the macroeconomic report for the fourth quarter of 2016.

The report warned of the possibility of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate being hiked three times this year, which could push up the USD rate in Vietnam, thereby hurting Vietnam’s exports and causing its trade deficit to deteriorate.

In order to maintain the value of the Vietnamese dong in the context of a rising USD rate, the State Bank of Vietnam could increase deposit rates, but this could pose risks and cause a ripple effect for the real estate sector, it said.

Another concern is that major oil producers’ production cut since January 2017 could cause oil prices to increase again. On the plus side, it could add more revenues to the State budget, but also potentially put pressure on domestic inflation, which has been higher recently due to the adjustment of public service prices.

Thanh said the 6.7% growth target this year is high and inflation under 4% will not be easy to achieve, suggesting that achieving the growth target must be done with “patience over haste” in order to prevent a relaxation in stabilising the macro-economy.

The report also forecast that the economy could expand by nearly 6.4% while inflation could reach 5.9% this year, with the business sector, especially manufacturing and processing, being a bright spot.

The government’s Resolutions 19 and 35 are also expected to cut down cumbersome administrative procedures and support private businesses. - VNN